Anupam Ghosh

Little causal evidence exists regarding the long-term impacts of natural disasters on crime. Using a balanced panel of county-level crime data spanning 1980–2020, this paper estimates the short- and long-term effects of hurricanes of varying intensities affecting U.S. counties between 1990 and 2010. Findings reveal that, while minor hurricanes produce marginal effects on crime, major hurricanes cause significant increases in incidents of property crime. In the decade following exposure to major hurricanes, property crime rates increase by 8.5% relative to the baseline mean, thereby imposing an estimated per-capita social cost of $120 on treated counties. This unequal impact of stronger hurricanes is largely driven by evacuation orders and selective out-migration in the short term, and by declining per-capita incomes in the long term. I also find that hurricane effects are disproportionately larger for less-prepared and poorer counties, which, on average, risk losing 1.4% and 2.2% of per-capita GDP, respectively, due to hurricane-induced crimes. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that, while post-hurricane crime increases are greater in areas with smaller minority populations, arrest rates for minorities far exceed those for white individuals. Overall, the findings underline the need for greater resource allocation toward vulnerable communities and increased investment in disaster resilience measures to mitigate the economic and social consequences of climate change.